Hello, I’m top trader Jinlog.
In this video I provide a talk‑show–style commentary on the report, and you can read the full write‑up on my blog.
Reacting to every piece of news and overtrading erodes both your capital and your time.
The VPAR rhythm trading method captures the timing of the overall flow, then focuses only on key news and events at major support levels (“Mac Points”).
By combining sector and stock analysis with live index monitoring during broadcasts, you can manage risk while pursuing higher returns.
Summary
Super Micro Computer delivered Q2 FY2025 revenue of $5.6–5.7 billion, up 54% year‑over‑year, and non‑GAAP EPS of $0.58–0.60, beating consensus.
Full‑year revenue guidance was lowered from $26–30 billion to $23.5–25 billion, triggering a 15% one‑day drop on April 30.
Liquidity was bolstered by a $2.3 billion convertible note issuance on June 26 and a $1.79 billion receivables financing facility on July 16.
Trading at $57.37, SMCI remains in its long‑term uptrend, and the post–Trap 3/3 wave recovery following the July 2024 mid‑term breakdown strengthens the case for a major rally next year.
Investment Opinion
The 12‑month consensus target from MarketBeat is $42.89, implying downside from current levels; however, Mizuho raised its target to $47, citing robust AI‑server demand.
Goldman Sachs remains cautious with a ‘Sell’ rating on intensifying competition, while most other institutions maintain ‘Neutral’ to ‘Buy’ recommendations.
Chart Explanation
Since the May 17 algorithmic‐trend post, SMCI has stayed within its long‐term uptrend without significant deviation.
Current price: $57.37. Short‑term support: $55.70. Swing entry: $49.50. Mid‑term entry: transitioning from Trap 2/3 to Trap 3/3.
Short‑term target: $62. Swing target: $77. Mid‑term target: $78.
Swing Mac Point: $41. Mid‑term Mac Point: $53.
Rhythm Analysis
Short‑Term: Trend acceleration/maintenance with rhythm acceleration/maintenance; funds flow expanding and maintained.
Swing: Trend acceleration/maintenance with rhythm acceleration/maintenance, but funds flow showing weakening/transition.
Mid‑Term: Entering trend consolidation/formation; rhythm acceleration/maintenance alongside funds flow expansion/maintenance.
Financial Flow
Convertible notes raised $2.3 billion on June 26 to fund AI infrastructure expansion.
Receivables financing of $1.79 billion on July 16 further strengthened operational liquidity.
Debt‑to‑equity ratio: 0.42. Forward P/E: 22.7×. Financial structure remains healthy.
News / Risk / Event
• April 30 guidance cut drove a 15% one‑day sell‑off amid renewed AI‑demand concerns.
• May 6 Q4 revenue miss triggered an additional 5.4% after‑hours drop.
• March investigation in Singapore flagged potential export‑control risk over NVIDIA chips in Supermicro servers.
• February audit‑control weakness and auditor change added near‑term uncertainty.
Strategy Scenario
Short‑Term: Confirm support at $55.7, then trade the $55.7–$62 box range.
Swing: Enter on a rebound at $49.5 targeting $77.
Mid‑Term: If Trap 3/3 relief persists, seek major rally entry around $78.
Elliott Wave Analysis
Short‑Term Wave: In Wave 3, accompanied by Trap 2/3 relief and rhythm expansion, signaling acceleration.
Swing Wave: Completing Wave 5, now in Wave 2 corrective phase, matching funds‑flow weakening.
Mid‑Term Wave: Beginning Wave 3 post‑Trap 3/3 relief, suggesting a powerful impulsive uptrend.
Community Flow
• WallStreetBets: 24‑hour mentions 32, upvotes 137, 23 active users, 92% bullish sentiment.
• r/SMCIDiscussion: Debates focus on Russell 1000 inclusion prospects and CFRA research, with “M.O.A.T status” a hot topic.
Outlook & Risk Summary
Ongoing AI and cloud‑server demand combined with strengthened liquidity should sustain the rally.
However, lowered guidance, dilution risk from convertible notes, export‑control and accounting issues may increase short‑term volatility.
Deep Report
• Detailed analysis of convertible‑note terms and dilution impact
• Global AI server‑infrastructure market forecast and competitor comparison
• Quarterly cash‑flow structure deep dive
• Assessment of internal control and regulatory risks
Brand Notice
This report is produced using the VPAR rhythm‑analysis methodology, which combines chart rhythms and funds‑flow patterns to identify optimal trading opportunities. All investment decisions are the sole responsibility of the investor.