Hello, this is IGNIS 🔥 from VYRA’s top trader team. I’m back to analyze the scorching growth stock, SoundHound (SOUN). The most realistic way for an individual investor, not a professional trader, to consistently profit is to select a few strong long-term stocks and approach them with a 2-part entry strategy for swing or mid-to-long-term trading. Don’t forget that the US market generally offers higher probabilities than the Korean market. We provide our subscribers with the highest probability entry points and scenarios. We’ve pinpointed crucial turning points for SoundHound in our two previous reports on 11/15/24 and 8/8/25. Understanding this past flow is the most important key to igniting the flame of successful investment, so be sure to check them out.
3. Summary
👉 SoundHound is maintaining its mid-to-long-term trend, and is currently confirming short-term supply at the intersection of its swing and mid-term trend lines. SoundHound (SOUN) is stably accelerating/maintaining its mid-to-long-term uptrend, with an average upward pace of $1.5 per quarter based on wave lows. The current price of $14.26 is a critical juncture as it has entered the merging/formation phase of its swing and mid-term trends. As noted in our previous commentary, if a short-term supply signal is confirmed at this intersection, the trend could accelerate within the next two months. We use the VPAR method to predict when this flame will flare up again.
4. Chart Analysis
👉 We use the VPAR method to identify trend pivot points and react strategically at key support zones. This is the chart for SoundHound AI (SOUN), which you requested for analysis. Getting swayed by every market headline can easily exhaust your time and capital. We use the VPAR method’s live indices to monitor real-time inflection points and pivot points, improving stability and win rates with a 2-part entry strategy at major swing and mid-term support zones. Do you see the circles on the chart? These are key areas where the short-term trend merged, leading to powerful upward moves. You can secure a high win rate with such simple judgments. The probability and profitability are especially high around the swing (white) and mid-term (orange) zones. Conversely, the ‘X’ marks signify rebound points after a VPAR trend breakout. In a swing trend, the first short-term breakout often leads to a high-probability rebound at the swing support level. In a mid-term trend, the first swing breakout can lead to a high-probability rebound at the mid-term support level. Therefore, it’s crucial to check both the trend and wave patterns on the chart before trading. This video provides a talk-show-style report breakdown, and you can find a summarized report on our blog.
5. Investment Opinion
👉 We emphasize a rhythm strategy with risk management, targeting $17.2 at the swing and mid-term trend intersection.
- Short-term Price Target: We’ll hold off on a specific target in this trend merging phase.
- Swing Price Target: A hold above $17.2 will determine if the rhythm accelerates.
- Mid-term Price Target: The rhythm is currently unmeasured, so a clear mid-term target is reserved.
7. Rhythm Analysis
👉 We’ve detected an initial signal of a transition from an expanding to a contracting rhythm after a recent surge. SoundHound’s current rhythm is in the Rhythm Decline/Transition stage. This flow indicates that after passing the peak of an expansion phase, the band width is starting to contract again. IGNIS sees this as the ‘energy charging phase before the next explosive move.’ The RSI is signaling a return from the overbought zone of 70+ to around 50. The MACD histogram, while still positive, is decreasing in height, indicating a weakening of buying pressure. We must watch this contraction phase for a new Rhythm Development/Formation flow to begin.
8. Financial Health
👉 High debt and continued cash burn present risks, with a need for further fundraising for business expansion. As of Q2 2025, SoundHound has a high debt-to-equity ratio of over 300%. This debt, mostly from convertible notes, poses a risk of increased interest payments in a high-rate environment. Cash flow from operations is -$45 million, as R&D and operating costs significantly exceed revenue. This implies the necessity for additional fundraising to repay convertible notes maturing in 2026 and to expand the business. While IGNIS sees this as ‘unavoidable investment for innovation,’ investors must carefully manage the dilution risk.
9. News / Risks / Events
👉 The partnership with NVIDIA and overall sentiment toward AI growth stocks are creating positive momentum. Macro News: The current high-interest-rate environment is unfavorable for highly indebted growth stocks like SoundHound. However, sustained optimism about the AI sector is supporting investor sentiment. Risks:
- High Debt and Dilution Risk: The possibility of converting convertible notes or issuing new shares can put downward pressure on the stock price.
- Competition with Tech Giants: SoundHound must continuously prove its technological superiority against giants like Google and Amazon. Events:
- NVIDIA Partnership: NVIDIA’s investment and partnership are a strong signal for SoundHound’s technology and growth potential. This acts as a key catalyst, channeling positive AI sector sentiment to SoundHound.
10. Strategic Scenarios
👉 We plan a strategic entry based on supply changes at the intersection of the swing and mid-term trends. 🔥 IGNIS’s Action Plan: A flame is at its most powerful just before it ignites. Capturing this phase is crucial. ✅ Short-term Buy Strategy:
- Entry Zone: Upon capturing a supply spreading signal around the current price of $14.26.
- Conditions: TRAP Resolution Stage 2/3 + Rhythm transition signal (from decline to convergence) + Confirmation of swing/mid-term trend merging.
- Elliott Wave: Currently in the 4th wave correction phase, exploring an entry point for the 5th wave ascent. ✅ Swing Buy Strategy:
- Entry Zone: In the $12-$13 range.
- Conditions: TRAP Resolution Stage 3/3 + Rhythm Development/Formation flow + Confirmation of support at the swing pivot point ($11.2).
- Elliott Wave: A strategic staged entry zone in case the 4th wave correction deepens. ✅ Mid-term Buy Strategy:
- Entry Zone: A first-part entry in the $12-$13 range and a second-part entry at the mid-to-long-term pivot point of $10.2.
- Conditions: TRAP Resolution Stage 3/3 + Rhythm/Supply transition + Consideration of the long-term macro context (interest rate cut expectations).
- Elliott Wave: A strategy to capture the beginning of the 5th wave ascent from a mid-to-long-term perspective.
11. Elliott Wave Analysis
👉 The current 4th wave correction could find a foothold for a 5th wave ascent at the swing pivot point of $11.2. SoundHound’s current wave pattern corresponds to a 4th wave correction. The 4th wave typically manifests as a sideways movement or a deep retracement.
- 4th Wave Retracement Zone: Support could be found at the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level in the $12-$13 range. This zone is a key basis for swing and mid-term entry points.
- 5th Wave Price Target: Applying the 1.618 Fibonacci extension ratio to the 3rd wave’s range, the 5th wave’s target could be set around the $17-$20 range. IGNIS sees this price zone as the start of the trend acceleration.
- Strategy Trigger: For the 5th wave to proceed, TRAP Resolution Stage 2/3 + Rhythm Ascent signal + Supply Spreading flow must occur simultaneously.
12. Community Sentiment
👉 The community shows a high volume of mentions related to NVIDIA and optimism about AI technology.
- Reddit r/soundhound:
- Mentions: +55% MoM (3,500 -> 5,400)
- Top Keywords: “NVIDIA”, “partnership”, “buyout”, “growth”
- Twitter (#SoundHoundAI):
- Tweets: 2,800 -> 4,500 (+60%)
- Positive Tweet Ratio: 70% / Negative: 15% / Neutral: 15%
- Key Influencers: @AITechnologyGuru, @StockWhisperer
- StockTwits:
- Mentions: 6,100 -> 8,200 (+34%)
- Bullish Bets: 81% / Bearish: 19%
- Automated Sentiment Indicators:
- Positive Keywords: “breakthrough”, “investment”, “potential”, “NVIDIA”
- Negative Keywords: “dilution”, “losses”, “competition” Community data emphasizes social trends directly related to the stock’s unique keywords, such as influencer mentions. The high volume of “NVIDIA” keywords indicates SoundHound’s strong reliance on NVIDIA’s AI sentiment.
13. Outlook and Risk Summary
👉 We expect a rhythm acceleration with risk management due to high volatility and correlation with the AI sector.
- Supply/Demand: The stock’s price is highly sensitive to overall AI sector sentiment due to its close link with AI supply algorithms and a high covariance (0.90) with NVIDIA.
- Short Selling: While the short interest ratio is not yet alarming, traders should be aware of the potential for short sellers to enter the market during periods of high volatility.
- Institutional Supply: While included in some smaller tech ETFs, institutional basket trading is still limited. However, a major AI-related event could trigger a rapid influx of institutional capital.
The core of investing isn’t complex. Even for individual investors, the most probable path to consistent returns is selecting a few strong stocks for long-term holding and using a 2-part entry strategy for swing and mid-to-long-term trades. The US market is generally more favorable than the Korean market, and we’re here to provide our subscribers with the highest probability entry points directly.
14. In-Depth Report
👉 AI and institutional supply will be key triggers for a directional move. SoundHound’s recent stock movement shows a close correlation with AI supply algorithms. The high covariance with NVIDIA (NVDA) (0.90) suggests that SoundHound is being viewed as part of the broader AI sector, not just a standalone voice AI company. Therefore, SoundHound’s price is highly likely to be influenced by the trends of AI leaders like NVIDIA. As for institutional supply, no large-scale capital inflow has been observed yet. However, if the trend merges in the swing and mid-term pivot point zone, quant and algorithm-based institutional funds that rely on technical indicators could begin to flow in.
15. Brand Disclaimer
👉 This report is based on the VPAR Rhythm Analysis method, and all investment decisions are the investor’s sole responsibility. This report is produced based on the VPAR Rhythm Analysis method, which combines chart rhythm and supply/demand patterns to suggest optimal trading points. All investment decisions are the investor’s responsibility.
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