Can Bitcoin Reach $110,000 Again?

Rhythm in Convergence → Ready for Re-Acceleration?

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VPAR Chart Explanation This is the Bitcoin chart, as requested for analysis. The circled areas in the past and present are potential short-term trend (yellow) consolidation and upward trend points. These points have a higher probability and potential return when they are near the swing line (white) or medium-term line (orange). Each chart has its own wave tension and trend. Currently, it is above the medium-term (monthly wave) and swing (weekly wave) resistance/supply levels. It has been in a short-term downtrend for approximately 2 weeks. We are looking at the breakthrough and support trend of this short-term line to consider a swing entry point.

1️⃣ Investment Opinion

📌 Short-term wait & buy on dips → focus on rhythm convergence phase
📌 Medium-term upward trend potential remains valid
📌 Potential for repeated surge/dip cycles driven by policy/political news and ETF flows

2-week expected return: +4.8% → $109,580 (probability 66%)
2-month expected return: +11.2% → $116,320 (probability 61%)
2-year long-term target: +72.5% → $180,300 (probability 55%)

2️⃣ Summary

Bitcoin entered a corrective phase after reaching its all-time high.
Monthly and weekly charts show ongoing rhythm convergence, while daily and 120-min charts are attempting a short-term rebound after establishing a local bottom.
Despite increased volatility from ETF outflows and political issues, technically Bitcoin is regaining box center and positioning for potential re-acceleration.

3️⃣ VPAR Rhythm Analysis

🌕 Monthly

Strong acceleration followed by first clear convergence phase.
No Trap detected — maintaining position near box center.
Rhythm indicates potential for re-acceleration in this phase.

🟢 Weekly

BW (Band Width) convergence clearly underway; overbought pressure is easing.
Key resistance at ~$111,800; box center support ~~$100,000~~105,000.
Weekly RSI / MACD trending back to neutral — watch for momentum recovery.

🔵 Daily

Strong overbought conditions → Trap & sharp pullback → currently recovering ~~$102,000~~104,000.
Box support ~~$97,000~~99,000; breakout above ~$110,000 will open bullish path.
RSI rebounding from recent lows; MACD attempting to bottom.

🟣 120-Minute

Local bottom confirmed at ~$102K → recovering toward box center.
Breaking ~$105K may trigger quick move toward ~$108K.
Rhythm recovering after recent Trap — short-term upside potential remains.

4️⃣ Financial Flow (Network / Fundamentals)

Bitcoin hash rate at all-time highs — strong network security.
Network fees stabilized after recent spikes.
Active wallet count remains near highs — on-chain metrics still bullish.
ETF flows: ~$400M net outflow → increasing short-term volatility.

5️⃣ News & Risks Summary

Political issues → Trump vs. Musk comments triggered BTC sell-off (mk.co.kr)
$400M outflow from US Bitcoin ETFs (economybloc.com)
Weak US jobs data → rising Fed rate cut expectations → mid-term bullish catalyst for BTC (contents.premium.naver.com)

⚠️ Key Risks

Prolonged ETF outflows could drive BTC below $100K.
Political comments (Trump, etc.) could continue to increase volatility.
Deeper correction possible toward ~~$97K~~99K if rhythm fails to regain upside momentum.

6️⃣ Strategic Scenario

🎯 Entry

Accumulate ~~$102,000~~104,000 zone.
Add more if ~$100K fails — target ~~$97K~~99K zone.

🎯 Targets

1st target: $109,580 (probability 66%)
2nd target: $116,320 (probability 61%)
Long-term target: $180,300 (probability 55%)

🚫 Stop-Loss

Close below $96,500 triggers stop-loss.

7️⃣ Outlook

“The market feeds on uncertainty — the key is to catch the moment when rhythm starts to pulse again.”
Bitcoin is now in its first significant correction since reaching its all-time high.
Technically, it still holds strong potential for re-acceleration after completing this convergence phase.
While short-term risks stem from ETF outflows and political comments, medium-term bullish cycle remains intact.

8️⃣ Deep Dive

Institutional flows: ETF outflows observed — monitoring for signs of reinflows.
Short interest (funding rates): shifting from neutral to slightly long-biased.
Social trends: BTC-related mentions surged recently but now stabilizing — further interest likely if $100K holds.