Hello, this is AUREA. Just as I control time to read future waves, I look at Alibaba as it aligns within the market’s broader rhythm. BABA now stands at a crucial threshold, moving in a mid-term trend toward the long-term 150–200 supply zone. Before the breakout, the 137–143 pivot demands careful flow monitoring. Only those who read the rhythm can unlock the path ahead.
Summary (Special Note Highlighted)
- Special Note: Alibaba featured as the first posting stock in this series, currently at $135.
- A 150–200 long-term supply zone looms, with mid-term trend momentum in play.
- The 137–143 breakout test is pivotal, requiring flow confirmation.
- Recent performance: ~60% rebound; cloud/AI growth accelerating.
- China consumption slowdown and regulatory risk remain near-term headwinds.
Takeaway: With AI & cloud growth aligned with technical breakout potential, Alibaba could push toward 200 if it decisively clears 137–143.
Chart Commentary
Alibaba’s chart shows an ongoing mid-term acceleration phase, approaching 137–143 resistance. A breakout here could open the road to the 150–200 long-term supply cluster, though flow check is crucial before confirmation.
Rhythm Analysis
- Short-term: Trend acceleration / rhythm up / flow expansion → short rebounds remain intact.
- Swing: Trend convergence / rhythm up / flow expansion → breakout at 137–143 would unlock potential.
- Mid-term: Trend acceleration / rhythm developing / flow expanding → pathway toward 150–200.
Financial Flow
- 2025 Revenue: ~$137.3B (+5.3% YoY).
- June 2025 Quarter: RMB 247.7B revenue (+10% YoY), GAAP net income +76%.
- Cloud/AI: Cloud revenue +26% QoQ; AI revenues growing triple digits.
- Capex: >$50B AI & cloud investment over 3 years.
- EBITDA: –14% YoY, near-term margin pressure from investment surge.
News / Risks / Events
- Positives:
- Cloud/AI growth momentum; in-house AI chip development.
- Jack Ma’s renewed presence, Apple AI integration partnership.
- Risks:
- China consumption softness; intensified e-commerce competition.
- US-China regulatory tensions (AI chip import/export controls).
- Heavy investment burden pressuring short-term profitability.
- Overbought signals after 60% YTD rally, profit-taking risk.
Policy Variables
- Rates/Yield Curve: Dollar weakness, rate cut expectations could draw flows into EM tech.
- Regulatory Calendar: US-China tech/trade restrictions remain volatility triggers.
- Sector Strength: China tech relative strength improving, though more volatile vs global megacaps.
- Domestic Policy: Chinese government’s AI/tech stimulus supportive in mid-term.
Peer & Basket Checklist
- Peers: Tencent, JD.com, Baidu, PDD.
- ETF Exposure: Broadly included in EM and China tech ETFs.
- Liquidity: >20M ADRs traded daily, with deep options OI.
- Covariance: Strongly correlated with China tech and AI/Cloud baskets.
- Social Momentum: AI/Cloud narrative fueling rising investor chatter.
Timeline
- Feb 2025: Q3 earnings beat, net income +76%.
- May 2025: AI/cloud mega-investment plans announced.
- Aug 2025: Cloud revenue +26% QoQ; AI chip strategy confirmed.
- Late 2025: Break above 137–143 could lead toward 150–200 supply test.
Strategy Scenarios (Comment Reflected)
- Short-term: None (await flow confirmation pre-breakout).
- Swing Strategy:
- Entry: $121.
- Conditions: TRAP 2/3 resolved + 137–143 breakout.
- Target: $158.
- Mid-term Strategy:
- Entry: $100 (two tranches).
- Conditions: TRAP resolved + flow expansion + supportive policy tailwinds.
- Target: $200.
Elliott Wave Analysis
- Current = Wave 3 setup, breakout above 137–143 = expansion.
- 150–158 = potential Wave 3 peak.
- 200 = Wave 5 extension target.
Community Flow
- Reddit/StockTwits: Strong attention around AI/cloud themes.
- Positive keywords: “AI expansion,” “Cloud growth,” “Jack Ma comeback.”
- Negative keywords: “Regulatory risk,” “Competition,” “Overheating.”
- Sentiment: Generally positive, though overbought warnings emerging.
Outlook & Investment View
Alibaba now faces the 137–143 gateway. With rhythm accelerating and AI-driven growth, a decisive breakout could open the way toward the 150–200 long-term zone. Yet regulatory headwinds and consumption softness remain real risks.
Conclusion: For those who read the flow, Alibaba offers a mid-term opportunity to bend time in their favor — a chance to capture the wave toward 200.
Alibaba #BABA #ChinaTech #CloudAI #Ecommerce #ADR #Nasdaq100 #TechStocks #ETF #RHYTHMIX
English