Market Recap (prev. session)
- Indexes closed at/near record highs and breadth improved, keeping a risk-on tone.
- Volatility bled lower and the dollar softened, providing a supportive backdrop.
- NDX finished in the upper part of the day’s range after making fresh intraday highs.
Structure Check (Daily ↔ 2-Hour alignment)
- Daily: Above the pivot (“맥점”) with a rising rhythm; upper box is being re-defined.
- 2-Hour: Price and the short MA reclaimed the swing/base MA and crossed up; the first retest of that cross is in play (matches the circled zones on your screenshot).
“Don’t-Miss” 2-Hour Cross — Entry Rules
- After the bullish cross, buy the first retest that closes in the top half of the candle.
- Add if Anchored-VWAP (open/last swing low) is reclaimed with improving tape quality.
- Confirm BW (band width) turning up from compression with rising turnover.
- When Trap resolution ≥ 2/3 (reclaim convergence → tag inflection), scale the position; you don’t need to wait for full support touch.
Repeatable Patterns (most common in an up-biased daily trend)
- Cross → Retest → Wide-range up candle.
- NR7/inside-day cluster → ORB break aligned with the 2h cross.
- Prior high sweep → VWAP reclaim (short-trap flush, then go).
- Gap-up → partial fill → re-lift off the swing line.
- EMA ribbon compression → expansion (8/12/18 lift above 40/60).
- Momentum reset: RSI > 50 again + MACD histogram flips positive.
Pre-Entry Real-Time Checklist (Index or single names)
- Market breadth improving (adv/dec ratio > ~1.8), leaders in gear (QQQ/SOXX/mega-caps).
- VWAP: holding above VWAP and Anchored-VWAP reclaimed.
- Momentum: RSI reclaim > 50 and MACD signal cross up.
- Vol/DXY: vol suppressed, dollar not spiking against risk assets.
- Risk events: check 24–72h calendar (macro prints, big earnings).
- R/R sanity: stop below the retest low; reward:risk ≥ 1.5:1.
Execution Plan (template)
- Entry: 50% on the break of the retest bar high after the cross; another 50% on a minor pullback reclaim (≈ prior high −0.3~0.8%).
- Invalidation: close back below the swing/base MA or two bars below VWAP → exit.
- Add-on: only if price clears prior high and a 1% pullback holds with BW still expanding.
- Exits:
- Take 30–50% into prior high +0.5~0.8%.
- If ATR(2) × 1.2 is achieved, trail to prior bar low − tick.
- Flatten on daily pivot loss or MACD re-turns negative.
Red-Flag Conditions (do not buy)
- Failed cross: immediate two red bars closing back under swing MA + VWAP.
- Thin thrust: turnover < 70% of 10-bar avg while price pokes highs.
- Bearish divergence builds with BW re-compressing.
- Center-box chasing without touching an outer rail (support/resistance).
Notes Tied to Your Chart
- On the right 2-hour panel, the yellow/white up-cross followed by the retest (circled) is the textbook first entry.
- A small wedge-like dip that reclaims VWAP with volume is the add-on.
- On the left daily panel, closes above the pivot raise confidence via multi-timeframe alignment.
If you’d like, I can turn this checklist into a TradingView alert/Pine script that fires when the 2-hour cross + retest + VWAP reclaim conditions line up.
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