Hello, this is Top Trader Jinlog.
Overreacting to every headline breeds overtrading and drains capital and time.
The VPAR Rhythm Method times the broader move first and engages only when high-impact events align at the pivots (“맥점”).
Track both the stock and its sector while monitoring live indices to pursue returns with controlled risk.
Summary
CSCO is pressing the low-$70s ahead of the earnings window, setting up for a re-test of the $73 top (short-term) and the $78 band (swing).
Pullbacks to $68.5 and $63.3 remain valid re-entry checks if volatility expands.
Structural drivers are the Splunk integration (security/observability ARR) and AI datacenter Ethernet momentum (Silicon One × Nvidia Spectrum-X).
Focus on tape quality near $73 and the behavior around $68.5 support before leaning into follow-through.
Investment View
Last price: $70.67
Short-term (Daily): Neutral → Positive — If $73 stalls, allow a check-back into $69–$68.5; re-accelerate on tape repair.
Swing (Daily/Weekly): Neutral — Hold $68.5 with Trap 2/3 resolved and BW re-expansion before adding risk.
Midterm (Monthly): Positive — With ARR expansion and AI networking tailwinds intact, a $78–$80 box re-challenge remains base case.
Targets / Reference levels:
• Short-term target $73
• Swing target $78
• Midterm target $78+ (manage by rhythm)
• Swing entry $68.5; Midterm entry $63.3
• Swing pivot (맥점) $63.8; Midterm pivot (맥점) $55.3
Chart Commentary
Price is probing the upper rail in the low-$70s. Historically, similar spots showed “merge → advance” after a brief digestion.
Work between the rails: resistance near $73 and support near $68.5. Demand a visible improvement in turnover/prints before chase entries.
Rhythm Analysis
Short-term: Trend accelerate/hold · Rhythm rise/hold · Flow weaken/rotate — expect micro-pullbacks around resistance, then potential re-accel.
Swing: Trend accelerate/hold · Rhythm descend/turn · Flow converge/adjust — confirmation hinges on $68.5 re-support.
Midterm: Trend accelerate/hold · Rhythm rise/hold · Flow expand/hold — structural upside anchored by subscription and AI networking themes.
Quant aids: RSI reclaim of neutral and MACD re-expansion lift signal quality; BW (8/12/18, 40/60/90) multi-expansion confirms trend persistence.
Financial Flow
Recent quarter delivered ~mid-$14B revenue with non-GAAP EPS near the high-$0.90s; guidance framed with tariff impacts and a balanced tone.
ARR continues to expand alongside the subscription/software mix, supported by Splunk’s consolidation.
Watch product vs. service growth split and Splunk’s incremental contribution to security/observability.
News / Risks / Events
Earnings window (this week) typically introduces 24–72h order-flow distortions; trade at the rails, not in the noisy center.
AI datacenter Ethernet: Silicon One combined with Nvidia Spectrum-X/SuperNIC positions Cisco for the Ethernet shift in AI workloads.
Macro/policy: tariffs/export controls and capex-cycle swings can throttle networking/security spend.
Strategy Scenarios
Short-term long
— Entry: $69–$68.5 orderly pullback with tape repair (healthier turnover, improving uptick balance).
— Conditions: Trap resolution ≥2/3 + rhythm shift from compression → re-expansion + event check.
— Management: scale out into $72.8–$73; on a clean break, buy the first controlled pullback.
Swing long
— Entry: Re-support at $68.5, or rebuild inside the $63.3–$63.8 box.
— Conditions: Trap 2/3 + RSI back above neutral + MACD signal cross up.
— Management: scale toward $78; reduce on time-correction if breadth/momentum fade.
Midterm long
— Entry: Staged buys near $63.3 (midterm entry) and $55.3 (midterm pivot) on deeper resets.
— Conditions: multi-timeframe pivot alignment + BW 8/12/18 and 40/60/90 expanding together.
— Management: partials near $78–$80; keep a trend sleeve if rhythm stays in expansion.
Elliott Wave Analysis
Short-term: Favor ongoing Wave 3; a failed $73 attempt implies Wave-4 digestion inside $69–$68.5.
Swing: Wave-4 completion → Wave-5 requires $68.5 hold plus MACD re-expansion.
Midterm: Extended 1–3 variant supported by ARR growth and AI Ethernet adoption.
Community Flow
Positive keys: “Splunk integration,” “ARR expansion,” “AI datacenter Ethernet.”
Negative keys: “valuation vs growth pace,” “hardware frame” perception—multiple compression risk on misses.
Bias improves into/after prints but respect the event-vol spike.
Outlook & Risk Summary
Outlook: Subscription/software mix and AI networking partnerships support a re-test of the $78–$80 box if earnings/guidance confirm.
Risks: tariff/policy noise, capex down-cycles, integration execution; enforce level-based risk rules on a $68.5 break.
Deep Dive
Execution map: prefer outer-rail executions ($68.5/$73). In expansion, ride breakout → pullback → re-expansion; in degradation, pivot to time-correction.
Rebuild zones: $63.3, $63.8, $55.3 are staged accumulation areas; trigger risk controls immediately on loss of $68.5.
Brand Notice
This report applies the VPAR Rhythm Method, combining visible chart rhythms with flow patterns to propose optimal entries.
Nothing herein is investment advice; all decisions and responsibility rest with the investor.
Cisco #CSCO #Splunk #Security #Observability #AIDatacenter #SiliconOne #NvidiaSpectrumX #ARR #SubscriptionShift #Guidance #RhythmTrading #ElliottWave #BollingerBands #MACD #RSI
English