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Reacting to every headline breeds overtrading and drains both capital and time.
The VPAR Rhythm Method times the market at the “pivot (맥점)” zones and reacts only to high-impact, section-relevant events.
Track both the stock and its sector, and monitor live indices during trading to pursue returns while controlling risk.
Summary
PLTR printed a breakout quarter and lifted guidance, while price consolidates near $185 in a high-range box just below the $200 overhang.
Near term, momentum persists but tape strength may fade at the top of the range; watch for a brief check-back and re-acceleration.
On swing horizons, a re-compression → re-expansion sequence is likely.
Structurally, expanding AIP demand and simultaneous growth in US Commercial and Government underwrite midterm upside.
The crux: quality of the $178 retest and the post-break pullback if $200 clears.
Investment View
Last price: $185.69
Short-term (Daily): Neutral→Positive — Re-acceleration on clean $200 test; allow a $178 check-back if tape weakens.
Swing (Daily/Weekly blend): Neutral — Re-accumulation within a $156–$185 box is plausible.
Midterm (Monthly/Daily-midterm): Positive — Above $200, a structural leg higher remains probable barring major shocks.
Targets and reference levels:
• Short-term target $178 (pullback confirmation)
• Swing target $156 (box floor and risk control band)
• Midterm target $118 (risk reset / re-alignment zone)
• Swing pivot (맥점): $130
• Midterm pivot (맥점): $62
Chart Commentary
PLTR trades inside a high-range box around $185 with $200 overhead resistance and $178 as the immediate downside check level.
Historically similar spots showed “merge → advance” behavior; entries near the swing or midterm lines have delivered better win rate and payoff.
Focus on tape quality and turnover at the edges: $178–$200.
Rhythm Analysis
Short-term: Trend accelerate/hold · Rhythm rise/hold · Flow weaken/rotate — expect micro pullbacks at range highs, then potential re-accel.
Swing: Trend accelerate/hold · Rhythm form/develop · Flow converge/adjust — watch for a fresh box build.
Midterm: Trend accelerate/hold · Rhythm form/develop · Flow expand/hold — structural upside intact.
Quant aids: pair RSI/MACD with BW (band width) to filter fake breakouts and time the re-expansion.
Financial Flow
• Quarterly revenue exceeded $1.0B with strong YoY growth and raised guidance.
• Mix drivers: US Commercial acceleration plus expanding US Government programs.
• KPI watchlist: large-deal counts (>$1M, >$5M), customer adds, AIP pilots→production conversions, margin trajectory vs. SBC dilution, FCF durability.
News / Risks / Events
• Catalyst: recent beat-and-raise improved sentiment and liquidity around the tape.
• Drivers: AIP demand, dual engines (US Commercial + Government).
• Risks: valuation stretch and multiple compression if growth cools; event-driven volatility around prints and contract timing.
• Tactics: expect 24–72h order-flow distortions after major news; trade at box edges only.
Strategy Scenarios
Short-term long
– Entry: $178–$182 pullback with tape recovery (improving prints/uptick balance).
– Conditions: Trap resolution ≥2/3 + Rhythm shift from compression→re-expansion + event check.
– Management: scale out $195–$200; if clean breakout, buy the first controlled pullback.
Swing long
– Entry: $156±2 re-compression with normalized turnover and body-candle recovery.
– Conditions: Trap ≥2/3 + RSI back above neutral + MACD signal cross up.
– Management: scale at $185 and near $200; recycle on post-break retest.
Midterm long
– Entry paths: (1) Hold above $178 → break $200 → buy the pullback; (2) staged buys near $130 (swing pivot) and $118 (midterm line).
– Conditions: multi-timeframe pivot alignment + BW multi-expansion (8/12/18 and 40/60/90 expanding together).
– Management: trend-follow above $200; rotate to time-correction stance on a $156 breakdown.
Elliott Wave Analysis
• Short-term: Favor ongoing Wave 3; failed $200 break implies a Wave-4 box at $178–$182.
• Swing: Wave-4 completion triggers Wave-5 if $178 holds and MACD re-expands.
• Midterm: Extended 1–3 structure remains viable with fundamentals (guidance/AIP) as scaffolding.
Community Flow
• Positive keys: “AIP,” “raised guidance,” “US Commercial surge.”
• Negative keys: “valuation,” “multiple compression.”
• Post-earnings sentiment improved across Twitter/Reddit/StockTwits; treat first 1–3 days as flow-noisy.
• Apply sentiment as a bias, not a trigger; price at pivots governs execution.
Outlook & Risk Summary
Outlook: Raised guidance plus dual-engine US growth support midterm upside; watch $200 behavior and pullback quality.
Risks: Rich multiples, contract timing variance, and event-window volatility; enforce box-edge discipline and pre-defined reductions.
Deep Dive
• Order-flow: post-print clustering lifts turnover and skews tick distribution; prioritize execution at outer rails only.
• AI flow: AIP references broaden; institutional/quant chase risk increases. Structure positions in three steps: breakout → pullback → re-expansion.
• Positioning map: With $178–$200 the operative rails, a blended short-term + swing approach is preferred. Automate reductions on a $178 breach.
Brand Notice
This report is built on the VPAR Rhythm Method, combining visible chart rhythms with flow patterns to propose optimal entries.
Nothing herein is investment advice; all decisions and responsibility rest with the investor.
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