Hello, I’m top trader JinLog.
In the video I deliver a talk-show–style walkthrough, and the full written report is available on the blog.
VPAR rhythm trading times the bigger flow, then reacts only to high-impact news near key supports (“Mac Points”) so you can chase returns while keeping risk contained.
Summary
EXPE broke above a mid-term supply zone, then retested and held, rebuilding an ascending box.
Reference levels: Price $195.6; short-term target $200 (hit today); swing/mid-term target $225.
Best entries align with $186 / $180 / $178, where demand has repeatedly shown up and win rate historically improves for this pattern.
Investment Opinion
Short-Term: Buy the dip toward $186, take partials into $200–205.
Swing: Accumulate on a clean hold of $180, target $225, risk to Swing Mac Point $169.
Mid-Term: Build core near $178; on $225 breakout + hold, add on strength.
Chart Explanation
Structure: Breakout → throwback → support hold → resume uptrend within a rising channel.
Key levels: Entries $186 / $180 / $178; Targets $200 (hit) / $225; Mac Points $169 (swing) / $154 (mid).
Short-term line is merging/forming but biased up; swing/mid-term lines ride above channel support.
Rhythm Analysis
Short-Term — Trend: merge/form | Rhythm: rising/hold | Flow: expanding/hold → favors retests higher.
Swing — Trend: accelerating/held | Rhythm: rising/held | Flow: expanding/held → $180 defense keeps continuity.
Mid-Term — Trend: accelerating/held | Rhythm: rising/held | Flow: expanding/held → inventory cleared, odds of a top-side test increase.
Financial Flow
2Q results beat on revenue and EPS; GBV and room nights rose y/y.
Full-year guidance for revenue / GBV / margin was raised; operating leverage improved via simplification, rightsizing, and GenAI deployment.
Healthy cash generation and share repurchases support per-share value.
News / Risk / Event
• Demand tone improving: U.S. and international travel recovered; high-income bookings remained solid.
• Mix shift: B2B and Ads/Media contributions rising, aiding margin stability.
• Product tasks: Longer-than-planned tech migrations at Hotels.com / Vrbo keep some execution risk.
• Competition: Booking/Airbnb promotions may pressure take-rates.
• Macro: 2H slowdown, FX, oil, and geopolitics can widen volatility bands.
Strategy Scenario
Short-Term
• Entry: $186 dip + volume turn
• Exit: $200–205 partials
• Conditions: rhythm top-side flare + guidance tone intact
Swing
• Entry: $180 confirmed hold (if lost, reassess at $178)
• Target: $225
• Risk: two closes < $169 → reset the swing plan
Mid-Term
• Entry: $178 core, add on reclaim of $186
• Target: $225+ continuation after breakout
• Risk Mgmt: watch Mid Mac Point $154; reduce if lost, re-add on re-capture
Elliott Wave Analysis
Short-Term: Wave 3 push in progress; a clean break over $200–205 argues for 3-of-3 extension.
Swing: Wave 4 finishing → early Wave 5 if higher-low forms at $180–186.
Mid-Term: Wave 3 advancing scenario—inventory cleared sets up a sustained move through $225.
Community Flow
• Investor forums focus on valuation re-rating post beat/raise.
• Trader rooms split between “buy $186 dips” vs “fade near $200s,” underscoring near-term chop.
Outlook & Risk Summary
Beat/raise, mix benefits (B2B/Ads), and efficiency gains support the uptrend.
Still, macro softness and migration execution keep downside tests to $180 on the table—manage risk around $169 / $154 Mac Points.
Deep Report
• How rising B2B/Ads share can lift margin and multiple
• Hotels.com/Vrbo migration roadmap and execution risk tracker
• Competitive pricing/take-rate matrix vs. Booking/Airbnb
• Rebalancing playbook by zone: $178 / $186 / $200 / $225
Brand Notice
This report applies the VPAR rhythm methodology, combining chart rhythms with funds-flow patterns to surface optimal entries. All investment decisions are solely the investor’s responsibility.
Expedia #EXPE #TravelRecovery #ConsumerDiscretionary #EarningsBeat #GuidanceRaised #VPAR #RhythmTrading #SwingStrategy #BreakoutSetup #FlowExpansion #ChartAnalysis #RiskManagement #Valuation #TradingPlan
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