Hello, I’m top trader JinLog.
In this video I deliver a talk-show–style commentary, and you can read the full write-up on my blog.
Reacting to every piece of news and overtrading will erode both your capital and your time.
The VPAR rhythm-trading method captures overall market timing, then focuses only on key news and events at major support levels (“Mac Points”).
By blending sector and stock analysis with live index monitoring during broadcasts, you can manage risk while pursuing higher returns.
Summary
Super Micro Computer surged to its short-term target of $62 but then gap-dropped in line with the Nasdaq 100 correction, falling toward its swing Mac Point at $42.
Currently trading at $46.75, SMCI may form a mid-term consolidation box around $42–$53 before the next leg higher.
Short- and swing-entry levels require confirmation of continued stabilization; mid-term entry near $41 could set up a return above the old $122 high once its trap is cleared.
Investment Opinion
- Short-Term: Wait for the post-gap down rhythm to bottom out before small, tactical entries.
- Swing: Consider tranche buys near $42 once clear support and rhythm reversal signs appear.
- Mid-Term: Accumulate around $41–$42, then increase exposure as the stock clears its mid-term trap and targets a return above $122.
Chart Explanation
SMCI gapped up past $62 on the Nasdaq 100 algorithm but failed to hold and gap-dropped toward the $42 swing Mac Point.
- Short-term and swing entries must await confirmation of stabilization below $46.75.
- Mid-term entry at $41 aligns with the lower box range; mid-term Mac Point sits at $53 for risk management.
Rhythm Analysis
- Short-Term: Trend has broken and is transitioning; rhythm remains elevated but shows early signs of peaking; funds‐flow is weakening.
- Swing: Trend remains intact higher, but rhythm and funds‐flow are beginning to shift downward—watch for the $42 pivot.
- Mid-Term: Trend is merging/forming a base; rhythm is in a consolidation phase; funds‐flow shows a tightening pattern ahead of the next move.
Financial Flow
- Q4 FY25 revenue rose 8.5% YoY to $5.76 B, slightly below consensus, while issuing $3 B in convertible debt to bolster liquidity.
- Non-GAAP EPS of $0.41 missed the $0.45 consensus; gross margin compressed to 9.6%.
- AlphaSpread calculates an intrinsic value of $52.43, implying SMCI is currently trading ~11% below fair value.
News / Risk / Event
• CEO Charles Liang highlights AI data-center demand as a long-term growth driver.
• Major brokers (JPMorgan, Wedbush, BofA) maintain Neutral to Underperform ratings, with targets of $35–$42.64.
• Seeking Alpha anticipates a H2 structural rally on AI super-cycle tailwinds.
• CNBC notes SMCI has gained 50.6% year-to-date but still trades 28% below its 52-week high.
• Groundbreaking of a third California campus signals an expansion of U.S. manufacturing capacity.
Strategy Scenario
- Short-Term: Look for a clean rhythm reversal off the gap-down low, then enter small tranches.
- Swing: Buy portions at $42 support, take partial profits on a confirmed bounce, and tighten stops.
- Mid-Term: Build position around $41, then increase as the stock breaks back above $53 with strong AI-data-center catalysts.
Elliott Wave Analysis
- Short-Term Wave: Currently in a corrective Wave 2; rhythm remains subdued until the trap is fully cleared.
- Swing Wave: Entering Wave 3 impulse phase—momentum could accelerate on clear support.
- Mid-Term Wave: In a Wave 2 consolidation/formation stage that precedes the next major Wave 3 uptrend toward prior highs.
Community Flow
• On r/Supermicro, traders debate AI-data-center capacity plans and campus expansion news.
• On r/WallStreetBets, users clash over “buy the gap” versus “wait for further washout,” highlighting short-term volatility concerns.
Outlook & Risk Summary
AI data-center demand and manufacturing ramp-up support a mid-term base and eventual retest of $122.
However, broader market corrections, mixed Q4 results, and lingering bearish ratings pose near-term risks.
Deep Report
• In-depth study of AI data-center market share and demand forecasting
• Analysis of the convertible debt offering’s impact on capital structure
• AlphaSpread valuation methodology and peer comparison
• Box-range consolidation scenarios with tailored risk-management strategies
Brand Notice
This report is produced using the VPAR rhythm-analysis methodology, which marries chart rhythms with funds-flow patterns to pinpoint optimal trading opportunities. All investment decisions are the sole responsibility of the investor.
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