Hello, I’m top trader JinLog.
In this video I deliver a talk-show–style commentary, and you can read the full write-up on my blog.
Reacting to every single news item and overtrading will erode both your capital and your time.
The VPAR rhythm trading method captures overall market timing, then focuses only on key news and events at major support levels (“Mac Points”).
By blending sector and stock analysis with live index monitoring during broadcasts, you can manage risk while aiming for higher returns.
Summary
Microsoft is trading at $537.05, included in the Nasdaq 100’s triangular convergence algorithm and maintaining its swing uptrend.
Fueled by strong AI and cloud results, market cap has surpassed $4 trillion, and the recent short-term target of $554 was reached.
Analysts raise swing targets to $565 and mid-term targets to $610, highlighting further upside potential.
Investment Opinion
Short-Term: Buy on dips toward $525, and take partial profits near $554.
Swing: Enter at $504 support, target $565, with a stop-loss at the $451 swing Mac Point.
Mid-Term: Accumulate in tranches near $463, riding AI and cloud momentum toward the $610 target.
Chart Explanation
Microsoft is attempting a breakout from the Nasdaq 100 triangle and now trades within an ascending box at $537.05.
Key entry levels: $525 for short term, $504 for swing, $463 for mid term.
Targets: $554 (recently hit), $565 swing, $610 mid term; Mac Points at $451 (swing) and $423 (mid term) guide risk management.
Rhythm Analysis
Short-Term: Trend accelerating and maintained; rhythm rising and held; funds-flow expanding and stable.
Swing: Trend accelerating and maintained; rhythm weakening/transitioning; funds-flow expanding and held.
Mid-Term: Trend accelerating and maintained; rhythm developing/forming; funds-flow converging/adjusting.
Financial Flow
Q4 FY25 revenue of $76.4 B (+18% YoY) and operating income of $34.3 B (+23% YoY) demonstrate robust growth.
Q3 FY25 Azure and related cloud services generated $42.4 B (+20% YoY); intelligent cloud revenue rose 33%.
Quarterly dividend is $0.83 (annualized $3.32), yielding 0.63%; Microsoft plans a record $30 B AI investment this year.
News / Risk / Event
• OpenAI partnership renegotiations suggest a bid for more autonomous AI strategy.
• Windows 11 Insider builds added nine AI features (image captioning, Discover widget, etc.).
• The AI Cloud Partner Program was expanded, accelerating partner ecosystem growth.
• FTC dropped the Activision Blizzard acquisition lawsuit, reducing gaming-segment risk.
• July Partner Center update introduced concierge services for AI cloud partners.
Strategy Scenario
Short-Term: Buy dips toward $525, then scale out near $554 and reevaluate rhythm signals for re-entry.
Swing: Enter near $504 support, realize partial gains at $565, and trail stops at $451.
Mid-Term: Build positions around $463, leveraging AI and cloud catalysts toward $610.
Elliott Wave Analysis
Short-Term Wave: Currently in Wave 3 impulse, supported by expanding rhythm and funds-flow.
Swing Wave: Transitioning into Wave 4 correction, likely to find support at $504–$525.
Mid-Term Wave: Forming Wave 5 entrance, with potential for final thrust given AI investment.
Community Flow
• On r/Microsoft, debates focus on AI feature updates and partner program enhancements.
• On r/WallStreetBets, “Buy the dip” sentiment dominates, highlighting short-term volatility management.
Outlook & Risk Summary
AI and cloud performance, along with partnership momentum, support further gains.
However, rhythm weakening signals, potential gaming-segment setbacks, and Fed policy shifts could trigger pullbacks.
Deep Report
• Detailed analysis of OpenAI partnership terms and independent AI strategy
• Impact assessment of Windows 11 AI features on user engagement and monetization
• Deep dive into Azure revenue structure versus competitors
• Post-Activision litigation scenarios and gaming segment growth forecasts
Brand Notice
This report is produced using the VPAR rhythm-analysis methodology, which marries chart rhythms with funds-flow patterns to pinpoint optimal trading opportunities. All investment decisions are the sole responsibility of the investor.
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