Hello, I’m top trader JinLog.
In this video I deliver a talk-show–style commentary, and you can read the full write-up on my blog.
Reacting to every piece of news and overtrading will eat away at both your capital and your time.
The VPAR rhythm trading method captures the timing of the overall market flow, then focuses only on key news and events at major support levels (“Mac Points”).
By blending sector and stock analysis with live index monitoring during broadcasts, you can manage risk while aiming for higher returns.
Summary
Roblox delivered Q2 FY2025 bookings of $5.1 billion (+51%), daily active users of 111.8 million (+41%), and hours engaged of 27.4 billion (+58%), exceeding analyst expectations.
Year-to-date, the stock has rallied 116%, and over the past 12 months it’s up 222%, propelled to a record high of $137.79 on the earnings beat.
Since touching the short-term target of $150, index-wide profit-taking has driven a pullback to $125.40.
Reasons to build a long-term allocation in gaming and entertainment will be explored in our upcoming “Truth vs. False” content.
Investment Opinion
Short-Term: Take profits after the $150 target and watch for support retests before considering re-entry.
Swing: Look to buy at $112 or $100, targeting a rebound toward $140.
Mid-Term: Accumulate in tranches around $88, leveraging Roblox’s metaverse growth story and AI content-creation tools.
Chart Explanation
Current price: $125.40 after a post-earnings pullback.
Short-term entry at $125 is risky due to potential further downside; swing entries at $112 and $100; mid-term entry at $88.
Swing Mac Point: $87; mid-term Mac Point: $54. Box-range bottom provides optimal tranche-buy opportunities.
Rhythm Analysis
Short-Term: Trend in decline/correction; rhythm weakening/correcting; funds‐flow weakening/transitioning.
Swing: Trend accelerating/maintained; rhythm weakening/correcting; funds‐flow initiating/formation.
Mid-Term: Trend accelerating/maintained; rhythm weakening/correcting; funds‐flow weakening/transitioning.
Financial Flow
GAAP net loss of $1.1 billion and non-GAAP net loss of $194 million are offset by operating cash flow of $942 million and cash reserves of $4.74 billion, underlining solid financial health.
Bookings per DAU rose to $12.86 (+7%), with 23.4 million monthly paying users and average bookings per monthly paying user of $20.48.
Annual bookings guidance was raised from $5.29–5.36 billion to $5.87–5.97 billion, implying 36% growth.
News / Risk / Event
ARK Invest boosted its Roblox weighting to 7.39%, reinforcing strong institutional demand.
The launch of ‘Cube 3D’ AI tools and Mesh Generation API has accelerated creator-driven 3D content production.
Open-source ‘Cube’ expansion reported by TechCrunch broadens the developer ecosystem and enhances platform competitiveness.
Premium titles like ‘Grow a Garden’ and ‘99 Nights in the Forest’ continue to drive user engagement quarter after quarter.
Our upcoming “Truth vs. False” segment will dive deeper into why gaming and entertainment deserve long-term portfolio allocations.
Strategy Scenario
Short-Term: Implement split-sell strategies after the $150 peak, then monitor market breadth and rhythm signals for re-entry cues.
Swing: Enter at $112 or $100 support levels and realize partial gains near $140.
Mid-Term: Build positions at $88 in stages, capitalizing on Roblox’s metaverse expansion and AI tool adoption.
Elliott Wave Analysis
Short-Term Wave: Currently in a Wave 4 corrective phase, with traps unresolved and rhythm weakening.
Swing Wave: Transitioning into Wave 3, suggesting a potential resumption of upward momentum.
Mid-Term Wave: Early Wave 3 formation is underway, likely strengthened by new game releases and AI‐based content tools.
Community Flow
On the Roblox Developer Forum and Reddit r/RobloxDev, creators are buzzing about the new Cube tools and expanded opportunities.
On WallStreetBets, sentiment remains bullish with “buy the dip” calls outpacing profit-taking concerns, underscoring the need for short-term volatility management.
Outlook & Risk Summary
Roblox’s leadership in the metaverse and gaming rally should support further growth.
However, index corrections, potential underperformance of new titles, and delays in AI tool uptake could trigger additional pullbacks.
Deep Report
• In-depth analysis of the Cube AI tool ecosystem and 3D content competitiveness
• Detailed review of user growth metrics and monetization trends
• Strategic evaluation of the metaverse platform roadmap and content pipeline
• Preview of “Truth vs. False”: rigorous case for long-term gaming & entertainment allocations
Brand Notice
This report is produced using the VPAR rhythm-analysis methodology, which marries chart rhythms with funds-flow patterns to pinpoint optimal trading opportunities. All investment decisions are the sole responsibility of the investor.
Roblox #RBLX #Metaverse #GamingStocks #EntertainmentStocks #RhythmFlow #AlgorithmTrend #VPAR #AIContent #Cube3D #ARKInvest #ProfitTaking #EarningsPullback #MetaverseGrowth #RiskManagement
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