Hello, this is JinLog, top trader.
In the video, I deliver a talk‑show style commentary, and you can find the full written report on my blog.
Reacting to every piece of news and event can erode both capital and time.
The VPAR rhythm trading method captures overall flow timing and selectively responds only to key news and events at major support (“pivot”) levels.
By monitoring both sector and individual stock trends and tracking live indicators during streams, you can manage risk while pursuing higher returns.
Summary
AMD is once again confirming its mid‑term support at $168 with continued intraday trend strength, suggesting a high likelihood of a short‑term breakout.
In Q1, revenue hit $7.4 billion (+36%) with a gross margin of 50% (non‑GAAP 54%), driven by robust AI and data‑center demand fueling share gains.
Entry points are set at $160 (short), $137 (swing), and $125 (mid), with targets at $181, $195, and $226 respectively.
On any pullback, consider re‑entering in the $130–$140 range over the next 4–6 months.
Investment Opinion
Short‑Term: Recommend buying around $160 once rhythm rising and volume expansion signals are confirmed.
Swing: Suggest adding near $137 support when Trap 3/3 is resolved and AI event momentum is present.
Mid‑Term: Look for buying opportunities around $125 consolidation when rhythm development is confirmed, framing positions within a long‑term upward box range.
Chart Explanation
“Here is the AMD chart you requested.
The circled areas, past and present, mark short‑term trend consolidation and upward movement zones,
with higher probability and returns around the swing or mid‑term lines.
Please review trend and wave patterns on each timeframe.”
Rhythm Analysis
The current market, driven by strong AI and data‑center demand, has entered a high‑volatility phase and shows a robust rhythm uptrend at the upper Bollinger Band despite RSI overbought warnings.
Short‑term and swing are in the rhythm rising/maintenance stage, confirmed by Bollinger Band expansion, while a MACD golden cross and surge in volume reinforce the volume expansion signal.
Mid‑term is in an expansion phase following band contraction, suggesting additional upside once the band’s midpoint (pivot) is reclaimed.
Financial Flow
• Q1 2025 revenue: $7.4 billion (+36%), non‑GAAP gross margin: 54%
• GAAP operating income: $806 million; non‑GAAP operating income: $1.8 billion
• GAAP net income: $709 million; non‑GAAP net income: $1.6 billion; EPS GAAP $0.44, non‑GAAP $0.96
• Q2 revenue guidance: $7.1–7.7 billion, above consensus
• Robust cash flow and stable leverage ratio
News / Risk / Events
• June 12: At ‘Advancing AI 2025,’ AMD unveiled next‑gen AI servers and an open AI ecosystem vision
• July 23: Launched Radeon AI PRO R9700 (32 GB), enhancing on‑premise AI workload competitiveness
• August 5: Scheduled Q2 earnings release at 5:00 PM EDT
• Risk of short‑term pullback due to options overbought signals
• Monitor competition from NVIDIA and Intel’s pricing pressure and potential supply‑chain bottlenecks
Strategy Scenarios
Short‑Term Buy Strategy
Entry Zone: around $160
Conditions: Trap resolution 3/3 + rhythm rising trend + volume expansion signal + confirmation of AI/data‑center event
Swing Buy Strategy
Entry Zone: around $137
Conditions: Trap resolution 3/3 + maintained rhythm uptrend + confirmation of high‑volatility market regime + positive shift in channel sentiment
Mid‑Term Buy Strategy
Entry Zone: $125 consolidation/formation area
Conditions: Trap resolution 3/3+ + rhythm development stage + long‑term upward box range perspective
Elliott Wave Analysis
Short‑term: Wave 3 underway (entry at $160) + Trap 3/3 + rhythm expansion
Swing: Wave 4 corrective phase (entry at $137) + Trap 3/3 + volume expansion
Mid‑term: Wave 5 extension phase (target at $226) + Trap 3/3 + rhythm re‑expansion
Community Flow
Reddit (r/AMD)
• Mention volume: +22% MoM → 12,300 mentions
• Top keywords: “AI,” “Zen 5,” “RadeonAI”
Twitter (#AMD)
• Tweet volume: 9,000 → 12,150 (+35%)
• Positive sentiment: 68% / Neutral: 20% / Negative: 12%
StockTwits
• Mentions: 6,200 → 7,000 (+13%)
• Bullish bets: 72% / Bearish bets: 28%
Outlook & Risk Summary
• Opportunities: Continued AI/data‑center demand may drive revaluation.
• Risks: Competitor pricing pressure, pullbacks from options overbought signals, and higher interest‑rate volatility in tech stocks.
In‑Depth Report
• Institutional net buying increased to 22% share; short interest stable around 5%
• AI‑focused ETF holdings up 18%, signaling greater data‑center capex
• Rise in HFT and algorithmic trading participation may accelerate the trend
Brand Disclaimer
This report is based on the VPAR rhythm trading methodology, combining chart rhythm patterns with order‑flow analysis to identify optimal entry points. All investment decisions are the sole responsibility of the investor.