Hello, this is Jin‑Log, your top trader.
In this video‑style report, we walk through critical patterns and catalysts, with the full write‑up available on the blog.
Endless news and events can lead to overtrading, which erodes both capital and time.
The VPAR Rhythm Trading Method focuses on only the highest‑impact news and events that coincide with key support “pivot points.”
By combining sectorwide context with live index monitoring, you can manage risk while chasing optimal returns.
Summary
– Trading at $7.07, The Metals Company carries a market cap of roughly $3.0 billion.
– A double‑top formed on April 1 and May 20 has unleashed selling pressure. Watch for swing‑level support at $6.24 or a deeper breakdown toward $4.00.
– 2024 net loss totaled $81.9 million, reflecting ongoing exploration spending.
– Strategic financing includes $37 million raised on May 12 and an $85.2 million stake purchase by Korea Zinc—totaling $122.2 million in fresh capital.
– Q1 2025 net loss was $21 million, with Q2 results expected August 13.
– Deep‑sea mining permits remain in regulatory limbo under ISA guidelines and face environmental opposition.
Investment Opinion
- Short‑Term: After the trendline break, wait for initial rhythm formation and order‑flow stabilization before scaling in.
- Swing: Enter around $6.24 once Trap resolution ≥ 2/3, rhythm shifts from down to up, and order‑flow reversal is confirmed.
- Mid‑Term: Target $3.50 for incremental entry, adding positions when rhythm expansion and institutional flow acceleration coincide.
Chart Explanation
“This is the daily chart for The Metals Company (TMC.NAS).
The April 1 and May 20 peaks form a classic double‑top—a high‑risk reversal zone.
Key re‑entry pivots lie at the swing support ($6.24) and swing pivot ($4.00).
Always confirm trend, rhythm, and flow signals across your timeframes.”
Rhythm Analysis
- Short‑Term Rhythm: Transitioning from expansion into initial consolidation—currently in the expansion/formation phase post‑breakout.
- Swing Rhythm: Accelerating above the bands then rolling over into a down‑to‑up transition pattern.
- Mid‑Term Rhythm: Sustained expansion, with bands widening alongside strong upward momentum.
Financial Flow
– 2024 Net Loss: $81.9 million, reflecting pre‑commercial exploration costs.
– Q1 2025 Net Loss: $21 million, in line with seasonal R&D outlays.
– Capital Raises: Secured $37 million (May 12) and $85.2 million from Korea Zinc, providing ample runway.
News / Risk / Events
- Q2 2025 Earnings: Scheduled for August 13; consensus EPS at –$0.06.
- Korea Zinc Investment: Strengthens balance sheet and reduces funding risk.
- Regulatory Push: U.S. permitting accelerated under recent executive actions; ISA framework still pending.
- Environmental Pressure: UN and NGOs call for a moratorium on deep‑sea mining, posing timeline uncertainty.
Strategy Scenarios
- Short‑Term Buy
- Entry Zone: Post‑break rhythm stabilization
- Conditions: Trap resolution ≥ 1/3 + early expansion signal + order‑flow pickup
- Swing Buy
- Entry Zone: $6.24
- Conditions: Trap resolution ≥ 2/3 + rhythm reversal + flow confirmation
- Mid‑Term Buy
- Entry Zone: $3.50
- Conditions: Rhythm expansion + institutional flow acceleration
Elliott Wave Analysis
- Short‑Term: Completed Wave 3 at the double‑top; Wave 4 correction underway—watch for Trap 2/3 near support.
- Swing: Wave 4 correction around $6.24; a valid Wave 5 resumption hinges on clear rhythm recovery.
- Mid‑Term: Wave 5 extension expected if deep‑sea mining catalysts accelerate.
Community Flow
- StockTwits: 23,119 watchers; mention volume recently up 8%.
- Retail Sentiment: “Sell” bias at 58% vs. “Buy” at 42%, reflecting caution.
- Reddit r/DeepSeaMining: Active debates on permitting and ESG impact.
Outlook & Risk Summary
Strong capital at hand and strategic backing from Korea Zinc support mid‑term growth, but deep‑sea mining permits, regulatory timing, and environmental opposition pose execution risks. Leverage any further pullback as a structured re‑entry opportunity, while monitoring permit milestones and ESG developments.
Deep Dive Report
– AI‑driven order‑flow and liquidity profile analysis
– Volume‑by‑price and liquidity convergence/divergence metrics
– Automated community sentiment integration and influencer monitoring
Brand Disclaimer
→ This report is produced using the VPAR Rhythm Trading Method, combining chart rhythms and liquidity patterns to pinpoint optimal entry points. All trading decisions are the sole responsibility of the investor.
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